Apocalypse Later.

 "Let me put it this way. We lost the Stanley Cup and we rioted.  What would we do if we couldn't put gas in our cars?"

Donovan Hides, TIR Science Correspondent

I’ve just finished reading John Varley’s Slow Apocalypse, in which an rogue bio-engineered micro-organism destroys the world’s petroleum supply by first solidifying it and then making it explode. The result, of course, is the downfall of civilization, after which it's every man (and woman) for him (or her) self, accompanied by widespread rioting and looting, biker gangs roaming the streets (presumably having shown the foresight to stock up on gasoline) and starvation and disease taking their toll on the population.

It was an interesting read, although somehow surprisingly low in drama. To be fair to Varley, I'm willing to admit that I’ve become a bit jaded - I think I may have been to the end of the world one time too many, as per Robert Silverberg. However, unlike zombie apocalypses, giant asteroid apocalypses, alien invasion apocalypses, global warming apocalypses and all-the-electrical-stuff-stops-working apocalypses*, Varley’s end of the world scenario is something that I could see as a very real possibility under the right circumstances. The question of what happens when fossil fuels run out has been a looming spectre for decades now, and all Varley has to do is accelerate the process.

The title of the novel reflects the fact that there is a four month spooling up period during which the governments of the world are apparently aware of the problem. In the case of the U.S. authorities, inadequate stopgap measures such as fuel rationing and car pooling are instituted while they attempt to surreptitiously deal with the situation, after which the penny drops and everything rather suddenly goes to hell in a handbasket.

Varley’s story is set in California, with most of the action taking place in Los Angeles - where better to start a disaster that involves not being able to drive?  More importantly, Los Angeles exists in a desert, apparently completely dependent on outside sources of food, water and energy, all of which would quickly run out if the transportation system was disrupted.

Varley also loads the dice in favour of chaos. Not only do Los Angeles' neighbouring oil fields (and the La Brea tarpits) explode, but there’s a 9.4 Richter scale earthquake and resultant flooding from broken dams, followed by a massive firestorm. On a national level, an attempted military coup adds insult to injury by crippling the ability of the government to address the situation. After the smoke quite literally clears, there appears to be very little left of the various governing bodies, and survivors band together in small self-sustaining** enclaves that exist at an almost pre-industrial level.

But here’s the question: would the elimination of fossil fuels, specifically oil-based fuels (coal and natural gas are unaffected) lead to the end of the world, or, more accurately, to a full-blown Mad Max-style downfall of civilization? Especially if the governments of the world had four months notice?

Given the current interest in global warming, carbon debt, and general environmental awareness, I'd like to think that the answer is "no".  Right now there's no serious incentive for switching to biofuels, but the potential is there. With some minor adjustments, any car can run on ethanol, and diesel engines were originally designed to run on corn oil rather than fossil fuels. It would take more time, but an emergency situation would accelerate the development of vehicles powered by fuel cells, and although hybrid electrical vehicles may not exactly be commonplace,  they're certainly an established technology, as are natural gas vehicles.

I doubt that four months would be enough time for a complete conversion, but it would be plenty of time to first let people know about the upcoming problem, and second to reassure them that solutions and substitutes were being put in place as quickly as possible.  And the punchline?  After all was said and done, it might even be cheaper at the pumps.

- Sid

*Obviously we need to come up with a term for this - I'm open to suggestions.

** There's a slightly snarky little comment at the end of the book about how these communities are completely committed to recycling and reusing absolutely all waste and garbage. Yes, it took a global disaster to make that happen...