"Ch-ch-changes."

In recent years, the world has experienced significant disruptions—the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Israel and Hamas conflict, extreme climate disasters, the surging cost of living, and global supply chain interruptions.

Predicting the next big upheaval may not be possible, but it is crucial to explore possible disruptions and anticipate potential future scenarios. Even seemingly distant or improbable events and circumstances can suddenly become reality, while overlapping disruptions can lead to compounded societal impacts..

Kristel Van der Elst
Director General, Policy Horizons Canada

Looking for ideas for an apocalyptic near-future novel?  Look no further, the Government of Canada has your back.  

Demonstrating admirable foresight, the federal Policy Horizons department has released a report detailing what they see as the top disruptions in Canada's immediate future. It's a sort of disaster bingo card listing 35 possible crises split into five categories, such as AI running wild, scarcity of vital natural resources, democratic systems breaking down, or an American civil war: and, as with bingo, there's a very real possibility of filling a row by having more than one event occur simultaneously, or for events to domino, one event precipitating another and then another.

It's an interesting little document, which breaks out the various disruptions by likelihood, timeline and impact.  If you're interested, you can read it online at https://horizons.service.canada.ca/en/2024/disruptions/index.shtml#report, or download a PDF version.

The odd thing is that they're all negative, with the possible exception of the development of Northern Canada.  I realize that the document is intentionally biased toward the cautionary, but I'd love to see a companion document - Synergies, perhaps? - with 35 possible changes or developments that would improves lives and make the world a better place. Not that I'm against building shelters against the gathering wind - but you know, windmills are also a good response.

- Sid