"A Snowball's Chance."

And Mr. Trump, this is Canada, we KNOW about snowballs.

- Sid

Canada First.

This was Canada. Canada was in this room, and the eyes of all Canadians were upon Parliament and upon him.

Richard H. Rohmer, Ultimatum

I recently suggested to my wife that there's an alternate reality where Donald Trump is a reasonably successful standup comedian.  Think about it: if Donald Trump had never been president, some of his speeches would be acceptably funny routines about fictional American policy.  "Hey, what about Greenland?  No one is using it, the US doesn't have nearly enough glaciers. why don't we just buy it off Denmark?  Think of the air miles we'd get!" Similarly, his recent comments about Canada becoming the 51st state under Governor Trudeau could easily be part of his Netflix™ special, Donny Trump's Guide on How to Make America Great Again.*

Sadly, we live in a reality where Trump's statements require a bit more attention. Even Donald Trump's allies admit that the President-Elect often speaks off the cuff rather than as part of a considered approach to setting policy, but just in case, let's take a look at how attempting to add Canada to the Continental US might play out. 

Mr. Trump, if you're reading this, I realize that you're not a great fan of long form documents - all evidence suggests that you prefer to receive data in the simplest and most accessible form possible - but I really do think that you should give the twin novels Ultimatum (1973) and Exxoneration (1974) a quick look before taking any action. They're not long books, but even the Coles Notes versions** will do the trick if you can't find the time to sit by the Mar-A-Lago pool with a Diet Coke or two and read the full texts.

Written by Canadian author and retired CAF Major-General Richard H. Rohmer, the two near-future speculative novels deal with an attempt by the United States to annex Canada by force majeur in order to take control of its natural resources.   

Ultimatum begins with the titular event: the aggressive shock-haired President of the United States delivers an ultimatum to Canada's charismatic, youthful Prime Minister - give the US immediate unlimited access to Canada's Arctic Islands natural gas or else. The Canadian government must reply to the ultimatum within 33 hours. The President backs up his demands by instituting economic sanctions in advance of his deadline, shutting down all movement of US investment funds into Canada only three and a half hours later.

It's an unexpectedly unbiased plotline. Yes, the Presidential demands are over the top, but he's been provoked by ongoing Canadian political inaction on resource development, combined with Ottawa's lack of progress in terms of coming to terms with indigenous obligations, which has led to project delays due to pipeline bombings by radical First Nations groups.

At the end of the first book, Canada rejects the ultimatum, which leads to the President announcing that the Canadian government is dissolved, and that Canada has been annexed and is now part of the United States. To ensure that this transfer of power goes smoothly,  US troops will be landed at all major Canadian cities and Armed Forces bases.  

Exxoneration begins immediately after the events of Ultimatum with the commencement of Operation Reception Party by the Canadian Armed Forces as US military transport aircraft begin to touch down in Canada.  America, wishing to avoid international condemnation for an armed assault on Canada, attempts to simply land troops at major Canadian cities and take over control of the country, with the expectation that Canada will simply accept its new role.

However, concealed missile launchers and artillery batteries at the airports allow the CAF to successfully hold the American troops hostage on the runways as leverage to stop the invasion. As the US President rages at his military advisors for their epic misjudgement of the situation (and subsequent American embarrassment on the global stage), he is surprised by a call from Russia, in which the Chairman of the Supreme Soviet indicates that Russia will not permit an American takeover of the North American continent. To enforce this position, he informs the President that Soviet missile submarines are in place near US coastal cities as a deterrent to further military action against Canada.  Faced with these two events, the President reluctantly stands down and agrees to negotiate with Canada regarding the natural gas situation.

The remainder of Exxoneration follows the Canadian government's $20B attempt to take over American petroleum product giant Exxon, punctuated by a court battle, adversarial legislation by the US government, and concluding with a successful Saudi Arabian takeover of the Canadian attempt using an oil embargo as leverage against the US.

To be honest, these books aren't for everyone, although in my re-reading of the pair many years after my first encounter, I was surprised by the degree to which they have a sort of Tom Clancy feel, albeit with a Canadian framework. However, even 50 years later, they're a useful metaphor for the challenges of managing relationships between the USA and Canada, pointing out the degree to which the two countries are economically connected on a reciprocal basis, not simply in a one-way connection from the south to the north.  And, Mr. Trump, they also make an important statement about our country: when it comes down to the crunch, we're all Canadians first - every else comes second.

Oh, and the American president who launches the military takeover loses his re-election bid - not that you have to worry about that part, it seems unlikely that you'll be able to scrap the Twenty-Second Amendment and get yourself a third term.

- Sid

* When you think about it, Stephen Colbert successfully did a similar shtick on The Colbert Report, and with his books, such as I Am America (And So Can You!).

** Sorry, I believe that it would be Cliffs Notes in America.

If you know, you know.

- Sid

P.S. Actually, if you don't know:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfLtAdSgWPQ